The United States is in the midst of an intense diplomatic effort to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, as risks rise that either side could launch a broader regional fight.
In recent days, American officials have pressed their Israeli counterparts and passed messages to Hezbollah leaders aiming to avoid a broader regional conflict that they fear could draw in both Iran and the United States.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met with several Biden administration officials in Washington this week, largely to discuss rising tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. That visit followed another last week by Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, and his minister of strategic affairs, Ron Dermer.
Also last week, a senior White House official, Amos Hochstein, who took on an informal diplomatic role as a mediator between the two sides, visited Israel and Lebanon. Hochstein warned Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, that the United States would not be able to contain Israel if it were to commit to an all-out war with the militia group.
Israel and Hezbollah, archrivals for decades, have frequently exchanged fire along Israel’s northern border. After Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7 triggered a fierce Israeli assault on Gaza, Hezbollah began firing into Israel, mostly at Israeli military targets in northern Israel, to show solidarity with Hamas, which is also supported by Iran. Fighting has intensified in recent weeks, and Israel’s reduction of combat operations in Gaza, where it has greatly weakened Hamas, has freed up more forces for a potential offensive in the north.
The nightmare scenario for U.S. officials would be an escalation in which, for a second time, Iran and Israel directly trade blows. In another such round, the U.S. might not be able to control the escalation of retaliation as it did in April.
For now, U.S. officials believe both Israel and Hezbollah would prefer a diplomatic solution.
During his visit to Washington, Gallant told Biden administration officials that Israel did not want a full-scale war with Hezbollah but was prepared to hit the group hard if provoked much further.
Among the officials who met with Gallant were Hochstein, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and CIA Director William J. Burns.
“The priority for the United States is de-escalation,” said David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the Trump administration. “Neither side wants a war.”
Hezbollah was formed with the help of Iran to fight the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon after Israel invaded the country in 1982. Hezbollah, a much more formidable fighting force than Hamas, has amassed thousands of rockets capable of devastating Israeli cities. .
US intelligence agencies assess that Hezbollah intends to show support for Hamas by attacking across the border, but has been trying to avoid giving Israel an excuse to launch a cross-border incursion.
U.S. officials believe the Israeli government is divided over the wisdom of opening a larger front in the north. Some Israeli officials, including Gallant, argued after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks that Israel should have responded by attempting to destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah.
According to U.S. officials, Gallant’s stance has since changed. He now says opening a new front would not be advisable, the officials said.
But U.S. officials and analysts say the risk of the war spreading remains dangerously high.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing mounting political pressure to restore security in northern Israel, from which some 60,000 residents have been evacuated. Many hope to return to the area before the new school year begins in September, but most say they will not feel safe enough to go back as long as Hezbollah attacks continue.
Adding to this risk is the uncertainty between the United States, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran about each other’s true intentions.
“There is a chance to pull this latest escalation and expansion of conflict back from the brink,” warned Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. “But there are four actors involved in a dangerous game of chicken and the potential for miscalculation is high.”
“Many in Washington and elsewhere have underestimated the risk tolerance of the current Iranian leadership,” he added.
U.S. officials have no direct contact with Hezbollah because the United States considers it a terrorist group. Hochstein relays his messages to its leaders through Shiite Lebanese politicians informally aligned with the group.
“It sent a very strong message: If you think we can dictate what they do or don’t do, you’re wrong,” said Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit that supports democracy in Lebanon and U.S.-Lebanon ties. “You have to understand that the U.S. doesn’t have the leverage to stop Israel.”
Mr. Gabriel, a former U.S. ambassador to Morocco, claimed he had direct knowledge of the communication. A US official confirmed that Mr Hochstein had delivered the message.
In addition to urging both sides to show restraint, Hochstein has been trying to persuade Hezbollah to withdraw its forces further from the border with Israel, as required by a United Nations Security Council resolution passed after the war. 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah.
On Sunday, Netanyahu said in a televised interview that Israel was demanding “the physical distancing of Hezbollah” from the border to eliminate the threat posed by the armed group.
“I hope they don’t force us to do it militarily, but if they do, we will be up to the task,” he said.
A major clash between Israel and Lebanon could be devastating for both sides. Israel inflicted so much damage on Lebanon in 2006 The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said he would not have carried out the operation that started the war if he had known the damage it would cause. But Israel would also emerge from it bloodied. Hezbollah claims it could launch 3,000 rockets and missiles a day, a barrage with the potential to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.
And even if Iran did not get directly involved, its other allied forces, including Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthi militants in Yemen, could step up their attacks on Israel and American interests.
Analysts and officials say stopping the fighting in Gaza would be the surest way to defuse friction between Israel and Hezbollah. But a recent plan to halt the fighting backed by Biden and the Security Council is in doubt following additional demands from Hamas and equivocal statements from Netanyahu.
Mr. Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, said Mr. Hochstein was optimistic that Israel’s plan to move to lower-intensity fighting in Gaza after ending its Rafah offensive could open a diplomatic window for a truce with Hezbollah.
“He believes this will provide Hezbollah with a ladder by which it can descend from its daily solidarity with the battle in Gaza,” Hanegbi said Tuesday during a debate at Reichman University in Herzliya. “And that means that it will be possible to talk about an agreement in the north.”
A growing concern of American officials is the well-being of American diplomats and citizens in the Lebanese capital, Beirut.
On Thursday, the State Department again issued an advisory warning Americans against traveling to Lebanon and emphasizing that the Lebanese government “cannot guarantee the protection of American citizens from sudden outbreaks of violence and armed conflict.”