Rishi Sunak’s misery deepened tonight as a trio of mega-polls found the Conservatives were on course for their worst ever result – and he could lose his ultra-safe seat.
Huge projections from YouGov, Savanta and More in Commons, made using the so-called MRP technique, offered a relentlessly bleak picture of the prime minister’s prospects.
YouGov suggested the Conservatives face a reduction to just 108 seats, which would be the worst performance in their 200-year history.
The reform could reach five electoral districts, since the company had previously projected that it would not obtain any.
A host of cabinet ministers would be ousted: Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Richard Holden, Alex Chalk, Gillian Keegan, Michelle Donelan, Simon Hart, David Davies, Johnny Mercer, Victoria Prentis and Michael Tomlinson. .
However, an equivalent poll from Savanta was even worse: it suggested the Conservatives were left with just 53 seats and that Sunak himself lost in Richmond and Northallerton. In a sign of the difficulty in making such projections, Reform was not seen as securing any seats.
A third MRP for More in Common found the Conservatives could end up with just 155 seats after July 4, with Sir Keir coming in at number 10 with 406 MPs.
The Liberal Democrats could emerge victorious in 49 electoral districts, according to research by More in common for the News Agents podcast.
That also found that Reform would not win a single seat. This despite a separate Survation poll published this afternoon suggesting Nigel Farage will record a shock victory in Clacton.
YouGov suggested the Conservatives face a reduction to just 108 seats, which would be the worst performance in their 200-year history.
An equivalent poll from Savanta was even worse: it suggested the Conservatives were left with just 53 seats and that Sunak himself (pictured today in Suffolk) lost in Richmond and Northallerton.
Sunak took advantage of the fact that inflation finally reached the Bank of England’s target again today as he tries to revive his electoral fortunes.
However, ministers have been increasingly open about their fears about the party’s prospects, with both Mel Stride and Welsh Secretary David TC Davies admitting today that Labor is almost certain to triumph.
Panicked Conservatives have been urging Sunak to attack Farage head-on, rather than trying to ignore the existential threat posed by reform.
The Brexiteer has admitted he cannot win this election, but insisted he wants to supplant the Conservatives as the real opposition and aspires to be prime minister in 2029.
The latest official figures showed headline CPI fell to 2 percent in May, from 2.3 percent in April, paving the way for interest rate cuts.
It is the first time inflation has reached the Bank of England’s target since July 2021, before the cost of living crisis caused inflation to soar, at one point reaching levels not seen for 40 years.
Sunak used the data to claim that inflation “is back to normal” and that Britons will “start to feel the benefits.” But he warned that putting Labor in power could “put progress at risk”.
The reductions will give Threadneedle Street pause for thought as it considers interest rates at tomorrow’s MPC meeting.
However, most economists believe rates will remain at 5.25, with the July 4 election seen hampering decisions.